Can the Conservatives claim the Liberal throne?

B.C. politics have always been dominated by an unforgiving two-party system, but B.C. Conservative Leader John Cummins thinks the time is right for a third party to emerge.“There’s no home for conservative-minded people in the Liberal party,” he asserted. “That’s really where we’ve got the momentum, because there’s a huge number of people out there who say, ‘I held my nose and I voted Liberal in the 2009 election.’ There’s a huge number of voters out there that are looking for an alternative.”

On that basis, the Conservatives will run a candidate in every riding in the next provincial election, and Cummins, whose party is enjoying newfound relevance and attention, asserts that the party will run “with the notion that we can become the next government in British Columbia.”

SFU political scientist David Laycock agrees that there is potential for a new right-leaning party in B.C.

“It requires that the dominant party experience some sort of division,” he explained. “If Cummins’ appeal catches on in those less urban ridings in the Fraser Valley, the North and the Okanagan, it’s quite conceivable that the Liberals would lose.”

But Laycock also noted that the Conservatives are facing an important test.

“(If Cummins) hasn’t given his party any great move forward in the polls in the past couple of months, I can’t see any reason why it would happen,” he said.

Recent Mustel polls have indicated just such a move forward, however, with Conservative support leaping from 7 per cent in December 2010 to 18 per cent this past May.